Is it over for Hillary Clinton?

After yesterday's primary results, lots of people are claiming it's over for Hillary Clinton.  Drudge has even declared Obama to be "The Nominee".  But Hillary hasn't quit yet.  So, I've been wondering, is she just delusional, or does she still have a chance?  I don't trust the media's analysis so I decided to try to figure it out for myself.

Assuming that the fine folks at Wikipedia have their numbers straight, here is the current delegate allocation:

A candidate needs 2024.5 delegate votes to win the nomination.

Hilary Clinton: 1,427.5 pledged delegates + 269.5 estimated superdelegates = 1,697 total delegates

Barak Obama: 1,589.5 pledged delegates + 255 estimated superdelegates = 1,844.5 total delegates

1697 + 1844.5 = 3541.5 delegates spoken for

4048 total delegate votes - 3541.5 = 506.5 delegates as yet unclaimed

Primaries remaining: West Virginia (28 pledged delegates), Kentucky (51), Oregon (52), Puerto Rico (55), Montana (16), South Dakota (15).

28 + 51 + 52 + 55 + 16 + 15 = 217 pledged delegates to be assigned via primaries

506.5 - 217 = 289.5 superdelegate votes as yet unclaimed

If the most recent polls are predictive of how the remaining states will vote, and if the delegate votes are being allocated proportionally (which they sort of are), here is how we can expect the candidates' delegate totals to change over the remaining of the primaries:

May 13: West Virginia: "The latest opinion polling shows Sen. Hillary Clinton holding a 56% to 27% lead over Sen. Barack Obama, with 17% undecided, as of May 4, 2008."  If the undecideds vote proportionally to the decideds, the final vote should be 67% Clinton, 33% Obama.  So, +19 delegates for Clinton, bringing her total to 1716, +9 delegates for Obama, bringing his total to 1853.5.

May 20: Kentucky: "According to a recent poll from Survey USA conducted from April 26-28, Clinton leads Obama 56% to 31% in Kentucky with 13% undecided."  If the undecideds vote proportionally, the final vote should be 64% Clinton, 36% Obama.  So, +33 delegates for Clinton, bringing her total to 1749, +18 delegates for Obama, bringing his total to 1871.5.

May 20: Oregon: SurveyUSA's April 28–April 30, 2008 poll has Clinton 44% Obama 50% Other 2% Undecided 4%.  If the undecideds and "other" are ultimately divided proportionally, the final vote should be 47% Clinton, 53% Obama.  So, +24 delegates for Clinton, bringing her total to 1773, +28 delegates for Obama, bringing his total to 1899.5.

June 1: Puerto Rico: "In a poll conducted from March 31-April 5, 2008, Clinton leads Obama by 13%, holding 50% to his 37%, with 13% undecided and a margin of error of ± 4.4%."  If the undecideds vote proportionally, the final vote should be 57% Clinton, 43% Obama.  So, +32 delegates for Clinton, bringing her total to 1805, +23 delegates for Obama, bringing his total to 1922.5.

June 3: Montana: Unfortunately, it appears that the most recent poll was taken back in December 17-December 19, 2007, with "Clinton 29%, Edwards 19%, Obama 17%".  If the votes are split proportional to how Clinton and Obama were doing then, the final vote should be 63% Clinton, 37% Obama.  So, +10 delegates for Clinton, bringing her total to 1815, +6 delegates for Obama, bringing his total to 1928.5.

June 3: South Dakota: A poll dated April 3, 2008 has Obama 46%, Clinton 34%, Undecided 10%, No One 6%, Other 4%.  If the votes are split proportionally, the final vote should be 42% Clinton, 58% Obama.  So, +6 delegates for Clinton, brining her total to 1821, +9 delegates for Obama, bringing his total to 1937.5.

No more primaries.  Clinton will now have 45% of the 4048 delegate votes and Obama will have 48%.  That doesn't seem like a huge difference.

1821 + 1937.5 = 3758.5 delegates are now spoken for.

4048 - 3758.5 = 289.5 unclaimed delegates remain (the unclaimed superdelegates I also calculated above).

Clinton will need 2024.5 - 1821 = 203.5 of the remaining 289.5 superdelegates to win, or 70%.

Obama will need 2024.5 - 1937.5 = 87 of the remaining 295.5 superdelegates to win, or 30%.

Hmm, it seems unlikely that she can do that. 

However, these calculations make some important assumptions that might very well not be true:

• The latest polls accurately predict how people will vote in the primaries
• The pledged delegates will be allocated proportional to the primary vote percentages (they are actually allocated by district, so it's possible to lose the state primary but win more delegates)
• The undecided/"other" voters will be divided proportionally based on how the candidates are currently polling
• No currently spoken-for superdelegates change their minds
• Michigan and Florida will not be counted

All of those assumptions could easily be wrong enough to significantly affect the outcome (at least one almost certainly is, although I don't know which one(s)).

So, unfortunately (I am not a Hillary fan), I think although it currently seems unlikely that she will win, it is not yet impossible.  She is ahead in the polls for most of the remaining states' primaries and who knows what those superdelegates will do?  Plus, if they decide to seat Michigan and Florida after all or have a do-over, Clinton won both those states (Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan) and that could tip the balance in her favor even if their delegates only count for half.

If I were Hillary Clinton, I wouldn't quit now either.  I think it's going all the way to the convention.

Comments

[Marrz]

slate has a wonderful delegate calculator, it's fun to play with.
http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

[Philip Welch]

In the long run, the decision will be intractable. On the fourth ballot, the Democratic Convention will nominate a compromise candidate: Al Gore.

[Scorpius]

Drudge has even declared Obama to be "The Nominee". But Hillary hasn't quit yet. So, I've been wondering, is she just delusional, or does she still have a chance?

Maybe she has an ounce of patriotism left in her and doesn't want to see the country left to the Obamanation.

[Shawn Levasseur]

Also, the so called "Pledged" delegates can jump ship if they want.

Is it possible for delegates to "defect"? It depends on how seriously the campaigns vetted the people who will be delegates.

The delegates that were chosen sooner (which may not have happened at the time of the caucus or primary, depending on each state's rules) may not have been given much scrutiny, as they didn't foresee the race being this close.

[Jacqueline]

Really, she can't quit until a decision is made about Florida or Michigan. They still have the opportunity to scrap their previous primaries and do another delegate nomination process (primary, caucus, whatever) that does obey the Democratic Party's rules. They also have the opportunity to appeal to the credentials committee at the convention. Hillary would likely have enough delegates from those two states to win.

She's actually my least favored candidate of three remaining, so I'm not hoping for this or anything, but even though I don't like her I now think that her strategy of hanging on until the very end is quite reasonable.

I think even if this drags on for four more months that the Democratic nominee will still beat McCain. People are so pissed at Republicans now, and I think that the protracted primary fight has mobilized more Democrats than it has turned off. I think that both Obama and Clinton want Democrats to retake the White House so much that whoever eventually loses will immediately throw the full force of their campaign resources behind the winner. As much as the Democrats have been fighting amongst themselves about this, they hate the Republicans way more.

[Philip Welch]

Also, the so called "Pledged" delegates can jump ship if they want.

Only after the first ballot, as I recall.

[Bill T]

The big calculation, I think, is in looking at the general election. How many states typically go Democrat (and by what margin of safety), how many go Republican, and how many are in the squishy zone?

The chatter is that Barack has won big, but in the wrong states (Republican), while Hillary squeaked by in the right ones (the squishy zone). So which way do you bet? In the general election, does Barack convert more Republican states, or does Hillary hold onto more of the wishy-washy? Where does the expected value calculation come out?

[LokiPV]

Hilary Clinton
She still in this Race, She will be the last hope for the democratic party, and the united states, If Obama wins You can Cancel Christmas, Obama has no agenda, on every single debate all he ever said is he agrees with Hilary on 95 % of what she said on every debate,, So many people Are caught up in the Barack Obama Magic show,,Why so many people Vote for a man that has no agenda.. A man that lies, And yes Hilary lied also but at least she has a agenda... This whole week,, they say The Media who favor Barack Obama, has to start talking about what he going to do, they see he has no agenda, not the same boring speech about change, I do think United states is ready for a black president, NOT Barack Obama, his wife is with out a doubt a racist, Republican had bush to disappoint them,, Now the democrats will have Barack for them, to compete for the worst president, Ever, Barack will bring change all bad,

[Philip Welch]

Is the Clinton campaign hiring illegal immigrants from Mexico to spam blog comment threads now? You'd think they'd outsource that to India, but Indians usually know how to capitalize and punctuate English correctly.

[Character Counts]

Hillary was the most unattractive choice for the White House ever, and being a woman had nothing to do with it. If there was any doubt about the self-serving, slash and burn, moral relativist Clintons, Hillary dispelled those doubts during her campaign. Now, it’s becoming downright embarrassing, this self-delusional candidate, who would not go away. This is now a spectacle and what we are witnessing is no longer admirable in any light. If she is allowed on the Democratic Party ticket in any capacity the Republicans win. It’s that simple!

[Jay]

Don't forget that Osama, er, Obama is a Muslim who swore on the Koran when he entered Congress.

Also, his Pastor is a racist, which makes Obama a racist.

Also, the American people are so stupid that they can believe both of those statements without even noticing that Muslims don't have Christian Pastors.

[Jenn]

Maybe a Thumb War can end this ?

[F. Brunelle]

If this were a chess game Obama would be at least a rook ahead. This is when you resign. The alternative is to play to the end and get slowly dismembered. Painful, embarrassing, delusional. If chess has taught us any lessons, it is to know when to quit. Obviously, Hilary has never played chess.

[F. Brunelle]

If this were a chess game Obama would be at least a rook ahead. This is when you resign. The alternative is to play to the end and get slowly dismembered. Painful, embarrassing, delusional. If chess has taught us any lessons, it is to know when to quit. Obviously, Hilary has never played chess.

[Philip Welch]

When I'm a rook behind, I play for the draw. I don't know about you.

[Wayne the Brain]

Last chess game I played online just the other day, I was a Knight down by turn 8, an additional Rook down by move 12, and won anyway on move 19. This was against a stranger I'd not played against before.

It matters where the pieces are, not merely how many one has. My opponent while ahead on material, had neither control over the center of the board or all his pieces in play.

I tend to resign as soon as the opponent has a clear advantage - I hate playing futile endings, and resigning at the proper time is accepted chess etiquette. In this case, though, my opponent's material advantage didn't seem to equate to an overall advantage, given various weaknesses in his position - so I kept playing.

[Wayne the Brain]

And I support Mike Gravel for the Libertarian Party nomination.