The Bildungsroman of JMPP: The Sequel

Little-known value in Las Vegas: Bill's Gambling Hall & Saloon

If you are looking for an inexpensive room in Las Vegas but don't want to stay off-Strip or in a total dump, check out Bill's Gambling Hall & Saloon.  Although the casino part is kind of dumpy, I'm told the rooms are nice (my mother has stayed there) and the location can't be beat -- it's at the intersection Flamingo & Las Vegas Blvd., which is the same mid-Strip corner as Caesars Palace, Bellagio, and Bally's.

Read the reviews on Trip Advisor for more information.

No movie this weekend :(

Speed Racer got 35% (it still sounds pretty, though) and What Happens in Vegas (which didn't interest me to begin with) got 28%. :(

Which is too bad, because we totally could have gone and seen either of those at 3 AM.

Battlestar Galactica 408: Faith open thread (COMMENTS CONTAIN SPOILERS)

What did you think of tonight's episode?  Please discuss in the comments!

Talking cats: possibly the most amazing thing I have ever seen on YouTube

A little early for Caturday but I had to share this immediately.

First, the original.  Make sure you watch this one first:

Then, the translation:

This one is also good:

Terrence "Not Johnny" Chan

0508080019.jpg, originally uploaded by Jacqueline1776.

And his new friend, a Johnny "Not Terrence" Chan bobble-head doll.

Terrence and I had a nice chat over coffee and tea tonight, although it was kind of difficult to come up with topics to talk about that we hadn't already read on each others' blogs!

Is it over for Hillary Clinton?

After yesterday's primary results, lots of people are claiming it's over for Hillary Clinton.  Drudge has even declared Obama to be "The Nominee".  But Hillary hasn't quit yet.  So, I've been wondering, is she just delusional, or does she still have a chance?  I don't trust the media's analysis so I decided to try to figure it out for myself.

Assuming that the fine folks at Wikipedia have their numbers straight, here is the current delegate allocation:

A candidate needs 2024.5 delegate votes to win the nomination.

Hilary Clinton: 1,427.5 pledged delegates + 269.5 estimated superdelegates = 1,697 total delegates

Barak Obama: 1,589.5 pledged delegates + 255 estimated superdelegates = 1,844.5 total delegates

1697 + 1844.5 = 3541.5 delegates spoken for

4048 total delegate votes - 3541.5 = 506.5 delegates as yet unclaimed

Primaries remaining: West Virginia (28 pledged delegates), Kentucky (51), Oregon (52), Puerto Rico (55), Montana (16), South Dakota (15).

28 + 51 + 52 + 55 + 16 + 15 = 217 pledged delegates to be assigned via primaries

506.5 - 217 = 289.5 superdelegate votes as yet unclaimed

If the most recent polls are predictive of how the remaining states will vote, and if the delegate votes are being allocated proportionally (which they sort of are), here is how we can expect the candidates' delegate totals to change over the remaining of the primaries:

May 13: West Virginia: "The latest opinion polling shows Sen. Hillary Clinton holding a 56% to 27% lead over Sen. Barack Obama, with 17% undecided, as of May 4, 2008."  If the undecideds vote proportionally to the decideds, the final vote should be 67% Clinton, 33% Obama.  So, +19 delegates for Clinton, bringing her total to 1716, +9 delegates for Obama, bringing his total to 1853.5.

May 20: Kentucky: "According to a recent poll from Survey USA conducted from April 26-28, Clinton leads Obama 56% to 31% in Kentucky with 13% undecided."  If the undecideds vote proportionally, the final vote should be 64% Clinton, 36% Obama.  So, +33 delegates for Clinton, bringing her total to 1749, +18 delegates for Obama, bringing his total to 1871.5.

May 20: Oregon: SurveyUSA's April 28–April 30, 2008 poll has Clinton 44% Obama 50% Other 2% Undecided 4%.  If the undecideds and "other" are ultimately divided proportionally, the final vote should be 47% Clinton, 53% Obama.  So, +24 delegates for Clinton, bringing her total to 1773, +28 delegates for Obama, bringing his total to 1899.5.

June 1: Puerto Rico: "In a poll conducted from March 31-April 5, 2008, Clinton leads Obama by 13%, holding 50% to his 37%, with 13% undecided and a margin of error of ± 4.4%."  If the undecideds vote proportionally, the final vote should be 57% Clinton, 43% Obama.  So, +32 delegates for Clinton, bringing her total to 1805, +23 delegates for Obama, bringing his total to 1922.5.

June 3: Montana: Unfortunately, it appears that the most recent poll was taken back in December 17-December 19, 2007, with "Clinton 29%, Edwards 19%, Obama 17%".  If the votes are split proportional to how Clinton and Obama were doing then, the final vote should be 63% Clinton, 37% Obama.  So, +10 delegates for Clinton, bringing her total to 1815, +6 delegates for Obama, bringing his total to 1928.5.

June 3: South Dakota: A poll dated April 3, 2008 has Obama 46%, Clinton 34%, Undecided 10%, No One 6%, Other 4%.  If the votes are split proportionally, the final vote should be 42% Clinton, 58% Obama.  So, +6 delegates for Clinton, brining her total to 1821, +9 delegates for Obama, bringing his total to 1937.5.

No more primaries.  Clinton will now have 45% of the 4048 delegate votes and Obama will have 48%.  That doesn't seem like a huge difference.

1821 + 1937.5 = 3758.5 delegates are now spoken for.

4048 - 3758.5 = 289.5 unclaimed delegates remain (the unclaimed superdelegates I also calculated above).

Clinton will need 2024.5 - 1821 = 203.5 of the remaining 289.5 superdelegates to win, or 70%.

Obama will need 2024.5 - 1937.5 = 87 of the remaining 295.5 superdelegates to win, or 30%.

Hmm, it seems unlikely that she can do that. 

However, these calculations make some important assumptions that might very well not be true:

• The latest polls accurately predict how people will vote in the primaries
• The pledged delegates will be allocated proportional to the primary vote percentages (they are actually allocated by district, so it's possible to lose the state primary but win more delegates)
• The undecided/"other" voters will be divided proportionally based on how the candidates are currently polling
• No currently spoken-for superdelegates change their minds
• Michigan and Florida will not be counted

All of those assumptions could easily be wrong enough to significantly affect the outcome (at least one almost certainly is, although I don't know which one(s)).

So, unfortunately (I am not a Hillary fan), I think although it currently seems unlikely that she will win, it is not yet impossible.  She is ahead in the polls for most of the remaining states' primaries and who knows what those superdelegates will do?  Plus, if they decide to seat Michigan and Florida after all or have a do-over, Clinton won both those states (Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan) and that could tip the balance in her favor even if their delegates only count for half.

If I were Hillary Clinton, I wouldn't quit now either.  I think it's going all the way to the convention.

FUCK I HATE PEOPLE PLAGIARIZERS

So, I finished my marketing project slides and have begun work on finishing the accounting project (an analysis of The Gap's financial reports).

It turns out that one of my accounting project group members -- yup, you guessed it -- plagiarized her contribution to our paper!

The other group member and I initially were suspicious because of the three pages she sent us, the third page was written in the first person plural and thus was obviously taken from the company's annual report.  However, the plagiarizer wrote in her original email, "The financial information is in draft form right now," so we decided to give her the benefit of the doubt that perhaps this part was just her research notes and she planned to rewrite and properly cite the information.

So, my reply to her email included the question, "Is what you sent us so far a draft that you wrote or is it notes copied from somewhere else or what?"

She replied, "the first 2 pages i wrote and the bottom is info i found."

OK, so far, so good.  She was not claiming to have written the part that she very obviously hadn't written.  Since I had the much more pressing marketing project to deal with and the accounting project isn't due until the 15th, I put off doing anything else with it for a week.

Well, I just started working on the accounting project again, and since I still don't trust her, I started plugging phrases into Google.  It turns out that the entire two pages she claims to have written herself are ripped off from Hoover's:

The Gap Company Description: She copied this paragraph word-for-word with only the following minor changes:

• replaced "ubiquitous" with "ever-present"
• deleted the reference to poplin
• updated 3,100 to 3,150
• deleted the word "iconic"
• deleted the word "budgeteer"
• deleted the fragment "each also has its own online incarnation"

So of the 112 words in the paragraph, she changed only 13 of them.  This does not count as adequate paraphrasing.

Industry Overview: Clothing Stores: She copied the "Industry Overview" and "Competitive Landscape" paragraphs word-for-word with NO changes.

Industry Forecast: She copied the opening sentence of the "Industry Forecast" section word-for-word with NO changes.

I'm not sure where she got her "Comparison to Industry & Market" and "Top Competitors" tables from, but the weird formatting strongly suggests that they were not created by her in Word (it's a Word document) but were copy/pasted off a website as well.

She does cite the source she ripped off, "Hoover's Handbook of World Business 2008", at the end of her document, but in no way does changing only 13 out of 286 words (thus copying 95% of the source word-for-word) count as "writing" something.

I am so fucking pissed.  Because *I* would have gotten an F on the project too (the professor has emphasized that plagiarism would not be tolerated) if I'd believed her and turned in the paper with her section left as is.  This woman is not some stupid little freshman who doesn't know better, she's on her last 12 credits of her MBA.  She fucking knows better and she decided to take the risk anyway and fuck the rest of us over because she's too fucking lazy to ethically research and write two fucking pages.

I AM TURNING THE BITCH IN.  I'm certain that my other group member will support me on this and we will just complete the project by ourselves.

Update: What really fucking sucks is the plagiarizer is the one who picked The Gap as our paper topic.  I don't want to write a paper analyzing the fucking Gap.  I don't even shop there.  I'd rather do Amazon.  But the non-plagiarizer and I already have 1/3 to 1/2 a paper about The Gap so it'll take us less time to finish the stupid thing than to start on a new company.

Update II: I heard back from the professor: "Thank you very much for telling me this.  You did the right thing in breaking away into a separate group.  There is nothing further that you need to do."  Dude, what are you doing up at 4am?

End-of-semester death march update (blogging will be light for a week)

Tonight: Work on the slides for the marketing plan presentation and try to finish the accounting project. 

The accounting project isn't actually due until the 15th, but I want to get it done early so we have the opportunity to get feedback from the professor and fix any issues before the deadline.  I'm not worried about it because it's very straightforward and I did so well on the exams that I only need to get 71% on the project to get an A in the class (but my project groupmates probably need higher scores so I can't just half-ass it).

Tomorrow: Rehearse marketing presentation with my group, finish accounting project if it isn't done yet.

Thursday: Presentation, followed by dinner with the former coworkers who are attending the presentation (the marketing plan is for their company).  Begin studying for Marketing final exam.

Friday-Tuesday: Study for the Marketing final, pretty much full time.  I am really stressed about this exam because I have no idea what my grade in the class is going into the exam -- the only intermediate feedback was two short case analysis papers (25%) which I half-assed and only averaged 85.5% on.  The rest of the grade is the marketing plan and presentation (30%) -- I think our group is doing well on but who knows how he's going to grade it? -- and class participation (20%) -- again, I think I've participated far more than the average student but it's so arbitrary and I have no idea if he uses relative or absolute standards to measure this.  The final is worth 25% of the grade and is rumored to be very tough.  I didn't get much out of his lectures so I'm going to have to study by self-teaching myself out of the textbook and that will be very time-consuming.  Ugh.  I'm really freaked out about this. :(

Tuesday night: Take Marketing final.  Drink heavily afterwards.

I'd also like to fit in pigging out at the San Gennaro Feast, see a movie with my husband, say hi to Terrence while he's in town (someone gave me the most ridiculous thing and I must regift it to him), and maybe go to the ArtFest in Henderson.  I've been neglecting my local friendships so hopefully I can interest them in going with me to at least one of those activities.

I will have a lot of rested XP waiting for me in World of Warcraft next week. :)

Delightful tidbits about my school

Apparently the men's bathrooms in the business school building are a hot gay cruising spot.  Awesome.

This is why Hubby and I are both getting chubby

This is why Hubby and I are both getting chubby, originally uploaded by Jacqueline1776.

Hubby decided that he wanted to make a pizza, so I'm retaliating by baking a pie.

When we were single, we only ate bad things when our own individual willpowers failed us.  But now that we're married, we're also bad influences on each other, so we eat bad stuff almost twice as often. :(

Worlds collide

Last night I dreamed that I was inside World of Warcraft, taking pictures with my new cameraphone.

How to be an annoying student

From The 4-Hour Workweek: Escape 9-5, Live Anywhere, and Join the New Rich by Timothy Ferriss:

"For all four years of school, I had a policy.  If I received anything less than an A on the first paper or non-multiple-choice test in a given class, I would bring 2-3 hours of questions to the grader's office hours and not leave until the other had answered them all or stopped out of exhaustion.

"This served two important purposes:

"1. I learned exactly how the grader evaluated work, including his or her prejudices and pet peeves.

"2. The grader would think long and hard about ever giving me less than an A.  He or she would never consider giving me a bad grade without exceptional reasons for doing so, as he or she knew I'd come a'knocking for another three-hour visit."

HA HA HA BRILLIANT!  I am sooooo going to use this.

Vamos a comer la comida Mexicana y beber las cervezas

Vamos a comer la comida Mexicana y beber las cervezas, originally uploaded by Jacqueline1776.

 

Getting an early start on Cinco de Mayo

Getting an early start on Cinco de Mayo, originally uploaded by Jacqueline1776.

 

24 hour movies!

I just learned from an ad in the Las Vegas Weekly that Brenden Theaters in the Palms is now running their biggest movies 24 hours on the weekends!  This is great news for night owls!  The ad also includes a coupon for free popcorn between 3am and 6am.

Review: Festival of the Arts & Wine Walk at The District at Green Valley Ranch

Despite its flaws, Hubby and I enjoyed our first time at the Green Valley Festival of the Arts & Wine Walk.

The wine:

Admission to the wine walk was $30 per person or $50 for a couple.  For this, you got a punch card allowing you one 1 oz sample each of 20 different wines.  So, the equivalent of 4 glasses of wine per person, if you sampled every wine available.

Unfortunately, the only copy of the wine list was posted at the entrance.  The wine boothlings made a half-hearted effort to tell you the name of the wine you were sampling but they did not have any fliers you could take with you (I'm guessing that they were only hired for the event and were not representatives of the wineries).  I think this lack of printed information on what you were sampling was a pretty big failing if the purpose of the event was to help people discover new wines to enjoy.  I took a few minutes to jot down the wine list (sans the ridiculous descriptions) so we could later find the wines we liked.  The vintage years were not posted.

We sampled about half the wines.  Hubby and I aren't sophisticated wine drinkers so all I can report is whether or not we liked something.  (The reviews below are based on my notes -- Hubby didn't take notes, but I don't recall any significant disagreement about any of the wines, so this is probably representative of his tastes as well.)

Our favorite wine was the Rosemount Estate Shiraz Grenache, and not just because their boothlings were the most generous pourers.  :)  We liked this one so much that we bought another bottle of it on our way home.

We also enjoyed the Rosemount Estate Pinor Noir, Bonterra Cabernet Sauvignon, J. Lohr Los Osos Merlot (very smooth), and the Sake 2 Me Ginger Mango and Asian Pear sakes.  The J. Lohr Bay Mist Riesling was very, VERY sweet, but I could see it working as a dessert wine. 

We didn't like the Bonterra Syrah, Bonterra Sauvignon Blanc (the "freshly cut grass" wine), Earthquake Zinfandel (a red zinfandel), Horseplay Rollicking Red, Climbing Shizaz, or Auto Moto Cabernet. 

The art:

The art was very bland.  I think that I could replicate about 1/3 of it and I have no artistic talent whatsoever.  It's really sad when people think that they are so clever and talented but it's obvious that their "innovative new technique" is just slopping horizontal streaks of paint onto a canvas, letting it drip down and dry, then turning it upside down and declaring it to be an "abstract art" "landscape".  If you splatter enough paint on enough canvases some of it will turn out looking cool, but that doesn't make you a talented artist.

The best "art" at this art show, in my opinion, was the nature photography.  Amusingly, there is this one shot that every single desert photographer seems to take (from various angles), of light coming down through the rocks into a cave.  Hubby and I have seen some version of this picture at almost every photography gallery we've been to in Las Vegas and I think we saw it three times at this art show.  One of these days we're going to find out where it is and go visit and take our own picture of it too, just for kicks.

The ambiance:

The setting was The District, an upscale outdoor mall next to the Green Valley Ranch casino.  They'd put up little white Christmas lights on all the trees and there was a nice jazz band playing.  Since it was outdoors, several people brought their (leashed) dogs.  The mall encourages this and even has little designated areas for the dogs to poop with poop bags available for cleaning up after them.

The crowd was mostly middle-aged, mostly upper middle class, about 90% white.  I doubt that anyone there was very serious about either art or wine -- it's the sort of event people go to just to *feel* more culturally sophisticated.  (Hubby and I are not so pretentious -- we were there because we like to drink.)

Compared to Lee's Wine Experience:

Lee's Wine Experience is better in every way.  But it's probably not fair to compare the two, given that this is a local little monthly wine walk with 20 wines and Lee's Wine Experience is an annual blowout event in a huge ballroom with over 1000 wines. 

However, scale is no excuse for the  logistical problems (in fact, a smaller scale event should be easier to manage).  The aforementioned lack of printed wine lists to take home was just dumb (whereas Lee's Wine Experience gives you a booklet with a list of all the wines and space to take notes).  The wine lines were much longer and the event felt much more crowded than Lee's Wine Experience, despite a much smaller attendance.  Some of the crowdedness might have been caused by this month's wine walk being combined with an art show (all those art booths take up space), so we'll see if future wine walks have the same problem.

Compared to the First Friday Art Walk:

The art at the First Friday Art Walk is much better, or at least much more memorable and thought-provoking.  There are artists there whose studios I seek out for additional visits because their paintings stay in my mind, whereas everything at the Green Valley festival of arts was completely forgettable.

However, the environs -- downtown's "arts district" (aka the ghetto) -- of the First Friday Art Walk are a lot scarier.  I don't feel safe walking back to my car after First Friday, whereas at no time did I feel unsafe at The District mall.

The First Friday crowd is also scarier.  It's one of the only events in town that teens can go to, and the goth, emo, and punk kids show up in droves.  I'd also guess that there is a lot of illegal drugs use and sales going on at the event.  I feel much safer being surrounded by the nice upper middle class people at the Green Valley art walk than by the freaks and misfits at First Friday.

Conclusion:

The Green Valley wine walk (and sometimes arts festival) is kind of "meh" but we'll probably go again, especially since we can combine it with a movie at the Green Valley Ranch casino theater afterwards.

Summer movie schedule

Upcoming movies I want to see, if the reviews don't suck (I expect that sucky reviews will probably eliminate at least half of this list):

• May 9: Speed Racer
• May 16: The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
• May 22: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
• May 23: War, Inc.
• May 30: Sex and the City: The Movie
• June 6: Kung Fu Panda
• June 6: You Don't Mess with the Zohan
• June 13: The Incredible Hulk
• June 13: The Happening
• June 20: Get Smart
• June 27: Wanted
• June 27: Wall·E
• July 2: Hancock
• July 11: Hellboy II: The Golden Army
• July 11: Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D
• July 11: Meet Dave
• July 18: The Dark Knight
• July 18: Space Chimps
• July 25: X-Files 2
• August 1: The Mummy 3
• August 1: Swing Vote
• August 8: Pineapple Express
• August 15: Star Wars: The Clone Wars
• August 15: The International
• August 15: Tropic Thunder
• August 22: Fly Me to the Moon
• August 22: Bangkok Dangerous
• August 29: Babylon A.D.
• August 29: Traitor